How AI and Synthetic Biology Are Reshaping Global Biosecurity
In a world where pathogens can be engineered with the click of a mouse, the line between groundbreaking science and global catastrophe has never been thinner.
Imagine a future where deadly viruses can be designed not in high-security laboratories but in makeshift home labs using benchtop DNA synthesizers. Where artificial intelligence systems can predict how to make a pathogen more contagious before public health officials can even detect it. This isn't science fiction—it's the emerging reality of biosecurity in the 21st century.
The same technologies that promise revolutionary advances in medicine and agriculture also carry unprecedented risks. As biotechnology becomes more accessible and powerful, the barriers to creating biological weapons are rapidly eroding. A 2025 RAND report warns that several emerging technologies, including CRISPR-Cas9 and AI models for protein design, are likely to mature within the next decade, potentially lowering barriers for hostile actors 1 . This article explores how our world is racing to defend against biological threats even as the tools to create them become increasingly democratized.
For most of human history, creating a biological weapon required access to sophisticated laboratories, rare pathogens, and highly specialized expertise. That equation is changing rapidly. The cost of gene sequencing has dropped an astonishing 180,000 times since 2001, making technology that was once prohibitively expensive accessible to far more people .
The OECD predicts that within the next 5 years, "next-generation genome editing tools that are more accurate, efficient, and versatile could enable precise modifications at multiple genomic sites simultaneously" .
This technological democratization creates what security experts call a "dual-use dilemma"—the same tools that can help design life-saving vaccines could also be used to engineer deadly pathogens. The convergence of artificial intelligence and synthetic biology expands both opportunities and risks in the realm of biosecurity by facilitating the discovery of synthetic pathogens and the execution of complex experiments 5 .
Source: National Human Genome Research Institute
Security researchers have modeled how emerging technologies might enable three concerning adversary scenarios 1 :
of an existing, accessible pathogen
of a previously existing or difficult-to-acquire pathogen
of a completely new pathogen
What makes these scenarios increasingly plausible is that no single technology uniquely drives the risk. Instead, the convergence and combination of tools—particularly when coupled with growing accessibility—will shape biosecurity concerns 1 .
Even as AI potentially contributes to biosecurity risks, it also offers powerful tools for defense. AI-driven surveillance platforms are revolutionizing early outbreak detection by analyzing genomic, epidemiological, and environmental data to predict spillover events and identify novel pathogens in real time 5 .
Perhaps most impressively, advanced AI models like OpenAI's o3 and Gemini 2.5 Pro have recently outperformed 94% of PhD-level virologists in the Virology Capabilities Test, highlighting their superior capabilities in practical laboratory tasks 5 .
The same AI capabilities that strengthen biodefense can also lower technical barriers for malicious actors. Natural language processing models can help synthesize complex scientific information, while AI-guided drug repurposing algorithms might be misused to identify compounds with harmful properties 5 .
The most significant concern is what security experts call BIOINT—biological intelligence—which was prominently mentioned in a recent hearing for a CIA director nominee 3 . Just as nations once urgently needed satellite and surveillance planes to monitor nuclear weapons development, we now need significant investment in BIOINT to monitor biological threats 3 .
| AI System | Primary Function | Biosecurity Application |
|---|---|---|
| AlphaFold | Protein structure prediction | Accelerated threat assessment of viral proteins 5 |
| AlphaMissense | Genetic variant impact prediction | Diagnosing rare diseases and prioritizing high-risk variants 5 |
| EVEscape | Viral mutation prediction | Forecasting immune-evading variants for vaccine development 5 |
| Clinfo.ai | Medical literature synthesis | Keeping clinicians updated with latest evidence 5 |
In response to these evolving threats, researchers from the RAND Corporation have developed a transparent, repeatable method for evaluating how technology maturity and diffusion may lower barriers to biological weapon development 1 . Their framework incorporates a "technology availability score" that measures when specific technologies reach maturity, factoring in scientific advancement, demand, regulatory barriers, funding, and public accessibility 1 .
This approach represents a significant advancement in biosecurity assessment because it offers repeatability and transparency—qualities often lacking in evaluations of dual-use risk. This makes it easier for governments, security analysts, and international organizations to compare findings, track changes over time, and prioritize technologies for oversight or investment in safeguards 1 .
Expected Maturity: Within the next decade
Impact: Lowers barrier for pathogen modification 1
Expected Maturity: Within the next decade
Impact: Accelerates pathogen design and experimentation 1
Expected Maturity: Not fully mature in next decade
Impact: Limits decentralized pathogen creation for now 1
Expected Maturity: Not fully mature in next decade
Impact: Restricts remote access to advanced equipment 1
The RAND study revealed several critical insights 1 :
Several emerging technologies are likely to mature within the next decade
Not all technologies advance at the same pace, creating uneven risk distribution
Expanding perspectives from policy and industry is essential
Modern biosecurity research relies on specialized biological reagents and tools. These materials enable everything from pathogen detection to vaccine development.
| Reagent/Tool | Function | Biosecurity Application |
|---|---|---|
| Salmonella Agglutination Typing Antisera | Identifies and classifies Salmonella strains | Disease surveillance and outbreak tracking 2 |
| mRNA Vaccine Platforms | Enables rapid vaccine development | Pandemic response (as demonstrated during COVID-19) 5 |
| Lipid Nanoparticles | Delivers genetic material into cells | Critical component of mRNA vaccine technology 5 |
| Next-Generation Sequencing Reagents | Determines genetic sequence of pathogens | Identification of novel or engineered pathogens 1 |
| CRISPR-Cas9 Components | Enables precise gene editing | Pathogen research and diagnostic tool development 1 |
These reagents are typically manufactured in dedicated production units certified to ISO9001 standards, with some requiring 'state of the art' high disease containment facilities for the production of specialist reagents 2 . Quality assurance is particularly crucial, as reliable testing forms the foundation of effective biosecurity and outbreak response.
Technological solutions alone cannot address the complex challenges of emerging biosecurity threats. Robust governance frameworks are equally essential. As stressed by the Centre for Future Generations, "Good governance of developments in biotechnology is a vital part of safeguarding against the risk of bioweapons. As these technologies improve and become more accessible outside of regulated research laboratories, more groups could potentially use them to cause widespread damage" .
Experts from organizations including Pandemic Action Network, RAND Europe, and IBBIS have identified several policy priorities for near-term action :
Advance coordinated efforts across civil preparedness, foreign and security policy, health, and defense initiatives.
Bolster prioritization and funding for biosecurity efforts, linking research funding to risk mitigation commitments.
Reduce emerging risks in the biotechnology landscape, with attention to biotechnology and AI interface risks.
Establish a permanent expert group within the EU Commission to continuously monitor emerging challenges.
Advance oversight for synthesis screening, as the EU currently lacks regulation to oversee DNA synthesis screening, which provides room for unmonitored access to synthetic genetic materials.
The future of biosecurity presents society with a profound challenge: how to harness the tremendous benefits of emerging biotechnologies while mitigating their unprecedented risks. There are no simple solutions, but one thing is clear—the pace of technological change will not slow down.
"In 2025, biosecurity will evolve from a specialized concern to a central issue at the intersection of politics, health, and national defense."
This transition demands greater public awareness, informed policy decisions, and sustained investment in both technological safeguards and international cooperation.
The race between those who would use biotechnology to cause harm and those working to protect humanity is intensifying. By supporting responsible research, advocating for smart policies, and fostering a culture of responsibility within the scientific community, we can work toward a future where the benefits of biotechnology are fully realized while its dangers are effectively contained.
Our future may depend on how carefully we walk this tightrope between breakthrough and breakdown.